Now it just so happens that I’m reading the late Hans Rosling’s recently published book: Factfulness: Ten reasons we’re wrong about the world – and why things are better than you think. Rosling argues that when asked simple questions about global trends in the world, people systematically get the answers wrong. However, the world despite all the challenges we are facing, would appear to be in a much better state than we think. Unfortunately, we have a tendency to worry about everything all of the time, rather than adopting a world view based on facts. As a result, we lose our ability to focus on those things that matter most. Instead, we should adopt a stance of factfulness which involves the stress reducing habit of only carrying opinions for which you have strong supporting facts.
To help us to adopt a stance of factfulness – Rosling suggests that we adopt 10 rules of thumb
- Gap – recognizing that when a story talks about a gap – this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarised – usually the majority are in the middle – just where the gap is supposed
- Negativity – recognizing when we get negative news, remembering that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us – when things are getting better we don’t often hear about them
- Straight line – recognizing the assumptions that a line will just continue straight – and that such lines are rare in reality
- Fear – remember that frightening things get our attention – and recognising that these things are not necessarily the most risky
- Size – recognizing when a lonely number seems impressive (small or large) and remembering you could get the opposite impressions if it were compared with or divided by some other relevant number
- Generalization – recognizing when a category is being used an explanation, and remembering that categories can be divided into sub-categories
- Destiny – recognizing that many things (including people, religions, cultures, countries) appear to be constant just because change is happening slowly
- Single – recognizing that a single perspective can limit your imagination
- Blame – recognizing when a scapegoat is being used and remembering that blaming an individual often steals the focus from other plausible explanations
- Urgency – recognizing when a decision feels urgent and remembering that it rarely is
And finally
Please don't think I'm saying all is rosy in English schools and the important trends are all heading in an upward direction. Rather I'm just asking that you understand how the grounds on claims are being made, the nature of the claim, the warrant for the claims, whether than warrant has strong backing, whether qualifications to the claim, and whether there any rebuttals.